Discrepancies between international and local population counts could mean there are many more people on the planet than official figures suggest, with major implications for resources.
First published in Nature Communications, researchers at Aalto University, Finland, have analysed 300 rural dam projects in 35 countries. From this data, they believe there could be far more people living in rural areas than originally estimated.
Postdoctoral researcher Josias Láng-Ritter believes the current global human population of 8.2billion – the highest of any species of mammal – could actually be a gross misrepresentation. In fact, the real number could be double or even higher.
‘We were surprised to find that the actual population living in rural areas is much higher than the global population data indicates — depending on the dataset, rural populations have been underestimated by between 53 percent to 84 percent over the period studied,’ said Láng-Ritter in a press statement. ‘The results are remarkable, as these datasets have been used in thousands of studies and extensively support decision-making, yet their accuracy has not been systematically evaluated.
‘When dams are built, large areas are flooded and people need to be relocated,” he continued. ‘The relocated population is usually counted precisely because dam companies pay compensation to those affected. Unlike global population datasets, such local impact statements provide comprehensive, on-the-ground population counts that are not skewed by administrative boundaries. We then combined these with spatial information from satellite imagery.’
Lang-Ritter’s theory has not convinced everyone, with New Scientist among the publications sharing views of sceptical peers such as Stuart Gietel-Basten of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. However, there is a consensus on the need to improve datasets for rural areas, particularly in light of the worsening climate crisis.
Each year, Earth Overshoot Day marks the date at which our annual supply of planetary resources is exhausted. This continues to get earlier each year, emphasising how we are living well beyond our means. Should the controversial new estimate on human population figures prove to be true, this would have huge implications for resource management.
Image: Rob Curran / Unsplash
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